Global Tourism – Outlook And Trends

According to UNWTO, international tourist arrivals are set to increase by an average of 43 million a year. Its Secretary-General Taleb Rifal explained that at the projected pace of growth, we will surpass the 1 billion mark by 2012, up from 940 million in 2010. By 2030, the number is anticipated to reach 1.8 billion, which means in two decades’ time, 5 million people will cross international borders for leisure, business, or other purposes, such as visiting friends and family every day, besides four times as many tourists travelling domestically. 

UNWTO’s Tourism Towards 2030 reported the following projections for 2010-2030 international tourism flows: 

Global growth in international tourist arrivals will continue, but at a more moderate pace

The number of international tourist arrivals worldwide is forecast to increase by 3.3% a year, on average, in the period 2010-2030, compared to an average of 3.9% a year in the period 1995-2010. 

International tourist arrivals will increase by 43 million a year on average between 2010 and 2030

The projected rate of growth in the period 2010-2030 represents an increase of some 43 million international tourist arrivals a year on average, compared to an average increase of 28 million a year in the period 1995-2010.

International tourist arrivals will reach 1.8 billion by 2030

At the projected pace of growth, international tourist arrivals worldwide are expected to close to 1.4 billion by 2020, and 1.8 billion by 2030.

Emerging economy destinations expected to surpass advanced economy destinations in international arrivals from 2015

International arrivals in emerging economy destinations are expected to keep growing at double the pace (+4.4% a year) of advanced economy ones (+2.2% a year). In absolute terms, emerging economies will add on an average of 30 million arrivals a year, compared to 14 million by advanced economies. As a result, from 2015, emerging economies will receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies and will surpass 1 billion arrivals by 2030.